Life is great in this marvellous island, with its fabulous landscape, beautiful beaches, lovely restaurants, and joyful people ...Things are going well, don't they? Well it depends for who: For us, as tourists, clearly Yes, as there is no queue at the places we have been going every year, restaurants, attractions...; we managed to book summer camp & tennis camp for our son the day before...And when you talk to local people, you realise how bad things are... more than 50% drop in the number of customers...So my guess: 3Q is likely to be a cold shower...and indeces are telling that already: this nice summer and some blabla from Super Mario drove markets up: well down trends (Europe, Commodity index) & tops (US/Asia mkts) are intact, and the very low level of VIX index shows very highy complacency!...
Top of downtrend/range + overbought index + over positive sentiment = the summer rebound is over...Prepare for Fall fall....
Eurostoxx Monthly: Downtrend intact, Sell signal
The index has rebounded and is testing 20month moving average. As long as it is below previous high, we are in downtrend. As it is overbought in monthly, weekly charts ( one months to 3 months view). The downtrend is intact , and we have a Sell signal now
Commodity Index: Downtrend intact, Sell Signal
Similar charts as the Eurostoxx, downtrend intact, overbought, at resistance level,
Sell Signal
VIX: Volatility Index: Super complacent market...
The index is a its low since 2008, and as you can see it does not stay at this level very long....
Happy end of holidays!
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