2012, a shy Bear vs Super Mario - 2013, critical resistance tested

Happy new year!  
We start 2013 with a potential defeat of the Bear by Super Mario. European markets did not touched the target I expected and rebounded straight to a critical level where we are now: we are at the resistance, the last retracement of the March 2011 - Sept 2011 fall. If the current level is maintained we can say that a bottom has been formed and we are heading to March 2011 highs, in the next few months, and 30% upside for the 12-18 months ahead...
For those who look at patterns, a double bottom have been confirmed last month.
In Asia Pacific, including Japan, we are already at the previous high.. 
S&P500 is close to 2007 high, is overbought, and sentiment is at his high...


Eurostoxx 50 Monthly Chart: 

The chart shows a break of the last key resistance, ie the last fibonacci retracement of the 2011 March high to 2011 Sept. Index is overbought. If level is confirmed, it is heading towards 2011 high

VIX index:Lots of complacency...

A record low level of the VIX index, ie an extremely positive sentiment on the S&P500, coupled with the (close to top) level of the S&P is a toppish sign.


Dollar Index monthly: range bound

The dollar index has been in a range and is overbought on one indicator and oversold on another, no strong move is expected

 















 CRB (Commodity) Index monthly

The index has positive momentum, close to overbought and resistance, no strong move expected, the downtrend started in 2011 is still intact, but tested...Likely to stay in a range...
















Conclusion:
US, Asia indeces are close to top and overbought, now we need
to watch the European indices, if their current levels confirmed in the next few weeks, they will lead the rally, and bottom is confirmed.
But even with a Buy signal, I am not as confident buyer as I was in Feb 2009, for fundamental (!!!) reason (Multiples are high, and did some DCF's on some major stocks in Europe and they are more than fair)...
My shorts have been stopped, I am still cash, and have little long in stocks that have been slammed (eg Peugeot...)